The art of predicting the future and the name Nostradamus are forever linked. The 16th century astrologer and physician became famous for his book, The Prophecies. Nostradamus tended to hedge his prophecies by predicting general events such as natural disasters that are bound to happen in almost every period in history. This Nine Minute Naturalist will follow the path of Nostradamus by brazenly predicting an event certain to occur, fall foliage.
The truth is that no matter what factors lead to great or mediocre fall foliage, the leaves will change color and we will once again bask in lovely hues all over Wintergreen. While the colors of autumn are a constant, the onset and intensity are the variables.
The major factor 2024 has imposed on the leaf change process is drought. The U.S. Drought Monitor has Nelson County in the abnormally dry category, eastern Augusta County in the moderate drought category and western/northern Augusta County in the severe drought category. Drought can make my job as fall foliage Nostradamus a bit more difficult. Severe drought often causes fall color to come early and for a shorter duration. Moderate drought can have the opposite affect and cause the colors to be delayed. The metabolic process of mild water stress verse intense water stress differs wildly.
The second major player in the color change game is temperature. High temperatures can increase stress that leads to premature browning and leaf loss. Moderate to cool temperatures in late summer and early fall can lead to a delay in fall colors. Our growing season was quite inconsistent from a heat perspective. Early summer was very warm while the months of August and September have seen very seasonal or even below average temperatures. This temperature dichotomy from early to late summer can be puzzling for a person impersonating Nostradamus.
The last question to consider in predicting the quality of our fall foliage is how much does the current weather pattern affect what the onset and intensity of the colors. It has been cool and dry thus far in September. The long-range forecast shows seasonal temperatures and the arrival of much needed rain. September’s weather has been close to ideal for great fall foliage.
The time has arrived for the fall foliage Nostradamus to render a prediction for 2024’s color quality. The effects of the drought are going to negatively impact the length and possibly the intensity of our foliage colors. I am already seeing stressed trees changing colors prematurely and even some trees dropping large quantities of leaves. Fear not, parts of the forest more immune to the stressors are going to salvage what could be a very subpar fall season. North/west facing slopes and areas of away from the dry rocky ridgelines will still provide good enduring colors that will ensure Wintergreen is worth exploring this fall. The official prediction is an overall early outburst of fall foliage along roadways, dry rocky ridges or anywhere else the acute effects of drought can be seen. The primary oak/hickory component will change in a timely manner with the peak foliage week being October 16-23. Nostradamus has spoken.
Make it a point to visit the Old Appalachian Trail this fall. A good portion is west facing and a bit protected from the effects of the drought. The Hemlock Springs Trail is at the bottom of a ridge and laden with maples that are sure to produce great color. Shamokin Springs Nature Preserve is another must see trail that offers a unique mixture of maple, birch, oak, and beech that change color at different times in the fall foliage season. Right or wrong, I now put aside my hat as fall foliage Nostradamus until next year.